|Modelprojekt, 1. modul, 2013, id:466|
|Findes på RUb:||Ja|
Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) is a syndrome affecting the European honeybee (Apis mellifera). Affected hives lose their worker bees, but very few dead workers can be found in and around the hive. The syndrome has many suspected causes. Notable suspects are Varroa destructor, Nosema ceranae, American foulbrood and neonicotinoids. Earlier analyses have given no final conclusion about the main cause of CCD. Therefore, this study proposes a novel method for examining the main cause that is, by analyzing the spreading of the syndrome in space and time, rather than symptoms in the individual hive. We demonstrate that this is an applicable method of assessing whether the syndrome is transmitted through direct contact, spread via airborne spores, or distributed randomly. As a concrete example of this, we examine the spreading pattern of a disease transmitted via contact, both through mathematical analysis and through a simulation in GNU Octave. From this examination it is apparent that patterns can be easily told apart if a pathogen is transmitted from a point source in an area and the wind has a prevalent direction. For pathogens endemic in an area, our method has a more limited application. This report is a pilot study on inverse problem solving, directed at both human and veterinary epidemiology, aiming to identify diseases from their pattern of spreading.