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Matematisk Modellering af udbredelsen af HPV
 Model, 1. modul, 2010, id:401 Vejleder: Carsten Lunde Petersen Findes på RUb: Ja
English abstract
This project is about mathematical models and the spread of cervical cancer. Cervical cancer develops from the human papillomavirus (HPV), which is a collection of nearly 200 different viruses that causes everything from warts on the feet to cervical cancer. There has in recent years been much focus on cervical cancer, partly because it's the cancer which in the developing world kills more women than any other, and partly because it's one of those cancers, which it is actually possible to limit the spread off in several ways. From a mathematical point of view, it is of particularly strong interest to develop mathematical models that can predict the development of cervical cancer, and assist in a more focused development of screening and vaccination programs. Although it is possible to get the vaccine against HPV 16 and 18, which causes most of the cases of cervical cancer, modeling results shows that there is still a need, for screening programs to catch those cases the vaccine fails to prevent. We have in this project looked at two articles, both of which have mathematical models for the spread of cervical cancer, as well as looked at the effect of a vaccination program. Since one of the articles already have been the subject of a thorough study of a former RUC project from 2009, we have in this project, chosen to focus more on the model developed in the Finnish article. In light of both a general description of HPV and a review of the Finnish model, we have formulated and discussed our own model, which have been adapted to Danish conditions, with a special emphasis on whether the conclusions in the article by Barnabas et.al. can be applied to Denmark. Our main conclusion is that, it does have a small benefit to vaccinate men, however it is rather marginal, and it would be preferable to instead use the cost of this on other kinds of treatment.

Database opslag den: 20-06-2019