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Speciale, modelbyggervariant, 3. modul, 2002, id:280
Vejleder:Viggo Andreasen
Findes på RUb: Ja
Abstract
English abstract
In this master thesis we present an age-structured school oriented epidemic model. The model is in two parts; one part describes a single epidemic season using a standard epidemic model, while the other part is a descrete season-to-season map which describes the loss of susceptibles due to the epidemic. The analysis of the model focus on periodic solutions of the model. If a threshold value exceeds unity the map has an endemic stationary state. Without the introduction of an age-dependent reduction in the susceptibility or infectiousness, the endemic stationary state is stable and possible oscilations of infected are of a size that does not correspond with data. With the introduction of an age-dependent reduction in the infectibility, the model shows both stablre and unstable oscilations. For a limited choice of parameter values and stating points the existens of an attractor is established.

Database opslag den: 18-03-2019